Take Novak Djokovic’s victory out of the equation and the 2023 Australian Open was all about surprises.
There were top seeds falling early – the first time in the Open era that the top two men’s and women’s seeds both lost before the quarter-finals – along with some surprise breakthroughs and late bloomers making their mark.
Iga Swiatek to start off another year of dominance by winning her fourth Grand Slam? Taylor Fritz, Felix Auger-Aliassime or Holger Rune to make a deep run? Jessica Pegula or Coco Gauff to make their major breakthrough?
The 2023 Australian Open doth not care for predictions of those sorts.
By the time the quarter-finals rolled round just four of the 16 players left across the men’s and women’s draws were ranked in the top 10. The men’s defending champion Rafael Nadal was gone, women’s world No. 1 Swiatek was gone, Gauff was gone, Pegula would soon be gone, and all the stars from Netflix’s Break Point documentary were cleared out.
For a tournament already without Nick Kyrgios, Carlos Alcaraz, Ajla Tomljanovic, and Paula Badosa, it was not an insignificant shake-up to the singles draws. And considering the Australian Open is often seen as the Grand Slam where players should be at their peak after an off-season break, the amount of upsets was surprising.
What it means for 2023: That there’s still a loooong way to go this season and a lot to learn.
The unpredictability of women’s tennis means top seeds falling early doesn’t have as much of a shock factor as it does in men’s tennis, but Swiatek and Pegula not challenging for the title was a surprise.
World No. 1 Swiatek was a big favourite before the tournament, but admitted she felt the pressure as she went out in the fourth round to eventual runner-up Elena Rybakina.
In hindsight it wasn’t as much of a shock considering the way Rybakina dispatched her next three opponents with her powerful brand of tennis, but it will be interesting to see how Swiatek responds and whether she will reassert her dominance when Indian Wells and the Miami Open roll around in March.
Swiatek is the defending champion at both events so will have plenty of ranking points to defend.
After Swiatek’s exit it looked even more like a first Grand Slam title was within reach for Pegula, but she was outplayed by two-time champion Victoria Azarenka in the quarter-finals.
Pegula was playing so well in her previous matches – and at the United Cup – that it felt like this was one that perhaps got away for her.
What it means for 2023: Question marks for Swiatek and Pegula too. How will they both rebound when next take to the court? Is it too much to expect Swiatek to dominate as she did in 2022?
